Martian FlowTry Martian Flow

Classic vs Single Game strategy

Two formats that need two different mental models — and why single-game exposures look alarming when they are not.

The rules differ, but the strategic difference is bigger than the rule difference. On a Classic slate your main decision is which players; in a single game, your main decision is which player gets the multiplier.

Single game: the pool is tiny and the premium seat is everything

One game gives you two teams and a few dozen players, of whom perhaps a dozen are genuinely worth rostering. Every position is eligible for every seat, including kickers and defences. So there are far fewer meaningfully different rosters than a Classic slate offers, and everybody in the contest is picking from the same short list.

The consequence: high overall exposure is normal and correct. If only a dozen players are playable and you need six per lineup, each of them has to appear a lot. Judging a single-game portfolio by its top overall exposure will make a perfectly good portfolio look broken.

Judge it by the Captain/MVP spread instead. Same six players with a different Captain is a genuinely different lineup that scores differently and is owned differently, so the premium seat is where your portfolio actually differentiates — and where the contest is usually decided.

The Captain seat is a pricing decision too

On both sites the premium player costs 1.5x salary as well as scoring 1.5x. Captaining the most expensive player on the slate eats an enormous share of your cap and forces cheap plays around him. Captaining a mid-priced player with real upside is often the more efficient bet, and it is usually the less popular one.

Classic: the opposite problem

On a full slate you have hundreds of players and almost unlimited ways to be different. The risk is not concentration, it is being different without meaning anything — 150 lineups that vary in the last flex spot and nowhere else. That is why the automatic build caps its own enthusiasm for any one unruled player at about a third of the portfolio, and spends its effort varying the things that matter: which games, which stacks, which price brackets.

Ask yourselfClassicSingle game
What am I really betting on?Which games and stacks break my wayHow this one game unfolds, and who its hero is
Where does my portfolio differentiate?Player selection and stack shapeThe Captain/MVP seat
What does a healthy top exposure look like?Up to about a third under the automatic buildConsiderably higher, and that is fine
How many lineups?As many as the contest allows you to fundFewer — there are fewer distinct rosters worth building

Try it on a real slate

Martian Flow builds DraftKings and FanDuel lineups for NFL and PGA, with the controls this guide describes.